Friday, March 2, 2012


Before we get to some Kentucky Derby updates, I just wanted to update everyone on my handicapping system that I developed and put into play at the Breeder's Cup. The system has been quite profitable since November. I explained the system to a colleague at work and when they used it at Santa Anita last Thursday, the system showed a profit of $600.00 in the four plays for that day.

Now on to the Derby Watch.

Todd Pletcher needs to go back to the drawing board in his decision for the Kentucky Derby.  His most promising trained horse, Algorithm, was pulled from last week's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park due to a leg injury. This injury is going to keep Algorithm out of the Triple Crown races.  Pletcher had high hopes for this horse. His last race in the Holy Bull on January 29 showed that he was a potential monster. He beat Mike Maker's, Hansen, by five lengths.

This is the third straight year that Pletcher has run into bad luck with possible Derby contenders. Last year Uncle Mo was sidelined because of a liver disorder and in 2010 Eskendereya was injured in the Wood Memorial and never raced again.

With Algorithm out for the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Union Rags, the Michael Matz trained horse, won the race by four lengths. Union Rags has not run since he finished second to Hansen in last November's Breeder's Cup Juvenile. 

Hansen is being entered in Saturday's Gotham at Aqueduct. He is going to try to make up for the disappointing showing in the Holy Bull. In my handicapping superstition, I will not throw Hansen in my mix for the Derby. My superstition is that any horse that has won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile will not win the Derby.

Then you have Bob Baffert, who right now could saddle up a turtle and win a horse race. This guy is just red-hot. Ask anyone who frequents Santa Anita and this guy has made a home in the winner's circle. He has possibly four horses that can make the Derby, Fred Biz, Secret Circle, Castaway and Liaison. And true to form about any Baffert horse is that he has one jockey riding all four, Rafael Bejarano. Gotta keep an eye on these four.

There are a number of prep races to be run before the first weekend in May and there are a number of 3 year olds that might come into their own by that weekend.  The discussions that will come up between now and then will be many and my only advice in betting the races is this, "Don't ever take a tip from a guy with holes in his shoes."

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